2/10 $META stock price (WAY LOWER)
3/10 @SoftBank stock price (WAY LOWER)
4/10 $ORCL CDS (WAY HIGHER)
5/10 US financial conditions (TIGHTENING for first time in months)
6/10 AI companies are now issuing debt to fund the buildout, but bond market beginning to "worry" - $GOOG recently sold $17.5bn in US bonds, $META raised $30bn recently, folling a $27bn private sale, & $ORCL tapped the bond market for $18bn in Sep.
7/10 CONCLUSION? @DLineCap's warning about AI debt (link below) points to the same cracks some have highlighted - i.e., the spillover risk from unprofitable projects. @DLineCap's Director (R. Cohen) asking: "Who knows what the spillover will be if the music stops?" matters!
8/10 Why? Well, if/when the pipeline can’t make money, the market doesn’t correct gently; it snaps. The fact that major allocators are already bracing is telling. @DLineCap's clients’ frustration with private credit mirrors TCW’s 15% underweight...
9/10... and @DeutscheBank's decision to hedge their AI exposure. Meanwhile, @MorganStanley projects $3tn in AI-related CAPEX, with roughly half funded by debt - yet no one can say with confidence whether the projects will ever earn a return.
10/10 The use of off-balance sheet vehicles only delays recognition, ensuring that when losses show up, they’ll arrive... all at once. Just an FYI.
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